Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 34,177
2 Florida 30,995
3 Mississippi 30,246
4 Arizona 28,676
5 Alabama 28,442
6 Georgia 26,249
7 South Carolina 25,769
8 Tennessee 25,112
9 Nevada 23,988
10 Texas 23,953
11 Iowa 23,793
12 Arkansas 23,403
13 New York 23,114
14 New Jersey 22,377
15 Rhode Island 21,833
16 Illinois 20,981
17 North Dakota 20,777
18 District of Columbia 20,718
19 Idaho 20,135
20 Nebraska 19,976
21 Delaware 19,447
22 California 19,413
23 Maryland 19,376
24 South Dakota 18,991
25 Utah 18,231
26 Massachusetts 18,147
27 North Carolina 17,777
28 Oklahoma 17,746
29 Kansas 17,460
30 Missouri 17,246
31 Wisconsin 16,413
32 Indiana 16,154
33 Virginia 15,766
34 Connecticut 15,397
35 Minnesota 15,072
36 Kentucky 13,694
37 New Mexico 12,801
38 Michigan 12,443
39 Ohio 11,847
40 Puerto Rico 11,820
41 Pennsylvania 11,720
42 Washington 11,012
43 Colorado 10,771
44 Alaska 9,859
45 Montana 8,574
46 Hawaii 7,689
47 Wyoming 7,588
48 West Virginia 7,153
49 Oregon 6,991
50 New Hampshire 5,673
51 Maine 3,647
52 Vermont 2,717

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 501
2 Missouri 260
3 South Dakota 257
4 South Carolina 235
5 Wisconsin 222
6 Oklahoma 217
7 Tennessee 206
8 Alabama 187
9 Arkansas 181
10 Iowa 176
11 Utah 172
12 Kansas 168
13 Indiana 151
14 Georgia 139
15 Nebraska 138
16 Kentucky 136
17 Minnesota 131
18 Delaware 129
19 Illinois 129
20 Texas 128
21 Louisiana 127
22 Puerto Rico 122
23 West Virginia 120
24 Idaho 117
25 Florida 114
26 Virginia 114
27 Alaska 111
28 North Carolina 111
29 Montana 108
30 Nevada 108
31 Maryland 106
32 Mississippi 94
33 Ohio 90
34 California 83
35 Hawaii 75
36 Wyoming 73
37 Rhode Island 70
38 Colorado 66
39 Michigan 65
40 District of Columbia 60
41 Pennsylvania 59
42 Arizona 55
43 Washington 55
44 Connecticut 53
45 Massachusetts 52
46 Oregon 47
47 New Mexico 44
48 New Jersey 40
49 New York 37
50 Maine 27
51 New Hampshire 23
52 Vermont 14

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,805
2 New York 1,677
3 Massachusetts 1,337
4 Connecticut 1,257
5 Louisiana 1,129
6 Rhode Island 1,014
7 Mississippi 909
8 District of Columbia 872
9 Arizona 731
10 Michigan 693
11 Illinois 676
12 Maryland 634
13 Delaware 633
14 Pennsylvania 620
15 South Carolina 597
16 Florida 588
17 Georgia 584
18 Indiana 510
19 Texas 500
20 Alabama 480
21 Nevada 472
22 New Mexico 392
23 Iowa 390
24 Ohio 378
25 California 365
26 Minnesota 350
27 Colorado 347
28 Arkansas 328
29 Virginia 321
30 New Hampshire 320
31 Tennessee 303
32 North Carolina 295
33 Missouri 293
34 Washington 275
35 Kentucky 247
36 Idaho 235
37 Nebraska 232
38 Oklahoma 228
39 North Dakota 227
40 Wisconsin 209
41 South Dakota 207
42 Kansas 186
43 Puerto Rico 169
44 West Virginia 153
45 Utah 135
46 Montana 130
47 Oregon 121
48 Maine 101
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 79
51 Hawaii 69
52 Alaska 56

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arkansas 4
2 Mississippi 4
3 Georgia 3
4 Louisiana 3
5 South Carolina 3
6 Tennessee 3
7 Florida 2
8 Kansas 2
9 Montana 2
10 North Dakota 2
11 South Dakota 2
12 Texas 2
13 West Virginia 2
14 Wyoming 2
15 Alabama 1
16 Arizona 1
17 California 1
18 Delaware 1
19 Illinois 1
20 Iowa 1
21 Kentucky 1
22 Massachusetts 1
23 Minnesota 1
24 Missouri 1
25 Nevada 1
26 North Carolina 1
27 Oklahoma 1
28 Puerto Rico 1
29 Rhode Island 1
30 Virginia 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 District of Columbia 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Idaho 0
37 Indiana 0
38 Maine 0
39 Maryland 0
40 Michigan 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Jersey 0
44 New Mexico 0
45 New York 0
46 Ohio 0
47 Oregon 0
48 Pennsylvania 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wisconsin 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 145,427 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 145,228 2 99
Lafayette Florida 144,859 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 137,055 4 99
Lake Tennessee 123,005 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 39,329 173 94
Richland South Carolina 33,123 272 91
York South Carolina 17,346 1047 66
Orange California 16,427 1134 63
Pierce Washington 9,008 2017 35

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,848 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 3,554 5 99
Richland South Carolina 524 687 78
Davidson Tennessee 405 933 70
Orange California 344 1073 65
Pierce Washington 228 1445 54
York South Carolina 214 1500 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons